A Russian Coup?

"When the bell tolls three times, it will announce that I have been killed." (Grigori Rasputin)

Though I’ve been following the Russian/Ukrainian war closely, I’ve stayed away from writing about it for a number of reasons. However, new information is emerging that will, if correct, have far reaching and potentially scary consequences. A little background is needed to understand what’s happening, or seems to be happening.

Background

For years Russia has relied on “Private Military Companies” (PMCs), or Russian mercenaries, to expand its influence and fight low conflict wars around the world. Though illegal under Russian law, the Putin regime has encouraged them and integrated them into Russian military and diplomatic strategy beginning somewhere around 2012. Since then, PMCs have been, and still are operating in approximately 30 countries in the Middle East (most notably in Syria), Africa, and even South America.

Wagner PMC, the “Musicians,” was established in 2014 and rose to the top of the PMC world to become, or at least be portrayed as the elite of the PMCs. Yevgeny Prigozhin, who used to be a caterer or chef, became friends with Putin some time prior to 2014 and is credited with establishing Wagner, is believed to be its leader and is certainly its public face.

Wagner is not some ragtag ill-trained group of fools with AK-47s. Prior to the Ukrainian war they reportedly had pretty high recruiting standards, an effective training program of their own, well equipped bases (both in and outside Russia), and heavy weapons that are among the newest and most advanced Russia produces - including artillery, armor, and even some aviation assets.

This Putin-Russian Defense Ministry-Wagner partnership worked well until things didn’t go as planned in Ukraine. Wagner had mercenaries in Ukraine since the start of the war. However, as fighting intensified additional Wagner mercenaries were committed until an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 were in Ukraine.

For whatever reason, Prigozhin convinced the Russian powers-that-be to allow Wagner to take Bakhmut, a town with little or no strategic value. Speculation is that Prigozhin believed that by taking this town, his star would rise within the Kremlin. Some speculate he had his eye on the Minster of Defense.

That plan ran into a snag when the Ukrainians refused to pull out of Bakhmut and instead inflicted heavy casualties on Wagner. Prigozhin stated Wagner suffered 20,000 dead. I think that number is inflated. But even if you cut it in half and add another two to three times that number for wounded, that gives you 30,000 to 40,000 casualties. Early on Prigozhin got permission to recruit from Russia’s prisons to replace his losses in Bakhmut. He gave the convicts a pretty sweet deal - full amnesty and a clean record for six months service. Of course the newly recruited convicts had to survive 6 months, which turned out to be somewhat problematic. Though the convict recruits gave Wagner the numbers they needed to replace their losses, they were not well-trained and unsurprisingly lacked discipline, so the effectiveness of Wagner decreased.

As the battle for Bakhmut continued, a rift between the Russian army and Defense Ministry on the one side and Wagner on the other started forming. Prigozhin would publish video and audio recordings on Wagner’s social media platforms criticizing the Russian military leadership. These rants would be picked up by Russian “Mil Bloggers” and go viral within Russia. Over several months these video and audio recordings became more and more critical of the Russian leadership in general and the military leadership in particular.

Once Wagner took Bakhmut they, were pulled off the front lines and sent to the rear to rest, regroup, rearm, and train.

Defense Minister Shoigu, reportedly with the support of Putin, ordered Wagner and all other PMC mercenaries would have to sign contracts with the Russian Army. This would make them part of the army and place Prigozhin under Russian Army Command, or even do away with the need for his services. Needless to say this was not popular with Prigozhin or his mercenaries and the Wagner forces refused to comply. Which brings us up to date.

Current Situation

Early this morning (PST) Wagner camps were reportedly hit by a large number of rockets resulting in significant casualties - both wounded and dead. Now that in-and-of-itself could be expected given the Ukrainians have acquired long range and accurate systems including the U.S. M142 HIMARS ground launched rocket systems and the British Storm Shadow air launched missiles. What could not have been expected, is that the rocket attack reportedly came from Russian held territory. In response, Prigozhin accused the Russian army of attacking his forces and announced Wagner is marching on those he believes responsible.

Is an attempted coup taking place? Don’t know but something big is going on. Prigozhin has reportedly called on the Russian Army to join him and Putin has been briefed on the situation. There are also unconfirmed, but credible reports of fighting between Russian regulars and Wagner forces, with some Russian regulars joining Wagner. Ukrainian forces in a position to observe claim it’s a “blood bath.” Additionally, there are reports that a 50km (31 mile) long column of Wagner forces has crossed into southern Russia from Ukraine and are heading for Rostov-on-Don.

Moscow has been placed on high alert, internal security forces are on standby, and two Russian generals have appealed to Prigozhin to stand down. That will be hard for Prigozhin to do, since the Prosecutor General's Office has initiated a criminal case against him for organizing an armed rebellion. Finally, there are reports that Russia is mobilizing interior forces, however, the majority of the Russian Army is in Ukraine.

With the majority of its army in Ukraine, does Russia have enough forces to stop what is reported to be about 25,000 Wagner troops? If they do, can they get them into position before it’s too late? Will the army stay loyal to Putin or jump to Prigozhin? I don’t know, and at this point I don’t think anyone does. But why should we care? Glad you asked.

Why We Should Care.

First, removing Putin, who is a corrupt authoritarian with grandiose plans to restore Russia to an empire does not mean the person who takes his seat will be better but could be worse. Prigozhin would most likely be one of the top contenders and he is quite frankly a corrupt, sadistic nationalist nut job. Under Prigozhin, Wagner became known for its brutality, human rights violations, and even war crimes. Do you really want him, or one of his soul mates to have control of Russia’s estimated 5,977 nuclear warheads? With all his crazy, Putin has remained sane about nuclear weapons. Not so sure Prigozhin would.

Second, a coup could result in the breakup of the Russian Federation, which is comprised of 22 republics. Think this is a good thing? What about those 5,977 nuclear warheads dispersed across the Russian Federation? Could terrorist get ahold of one or five? Many of those 22 republics, especially the western ones are dirt poor. Whose influence are they going to fall under, China? Iran? Will Israel react if Iran starts to exert control over a republic where nuclear weapons are stored? And we haven’t even touched on the possible humanitarian crises if this coup attempt turns into a civil war.

What can we do about it? Not sure. Since we’re $34 Trillion in debt we can’t afford to foot a massive humanitarian effort. Further, after Afghanistan and two years of an open border we can’t take large numbers of refugees. We can’t commit troops, what good would that do? Therefore, we’re pretty much limited to diplomacy. Alas, I have little faith in that given Blinken is our Secretary of State, Biden is showing strong signs of cognitive decline, and Harris has demonstrated a remarkable ability to be incompetent in everything she does.

If Prigozhin prevails, our world will become even more unstable.

Update: Since I started writing this article it has been confirmed that Prigozhin and Wagner are on the move. And the Russian Federation has setup roadblocks on the main highway from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow.