The COVID Panic
“Panic will kill you - and make you look like an asshole in the process.” ― David Pedreira, Gunpowder Moon
Initially I thought I’d start with a series on COVID, then vaccinations came out and things calmed down, so I a started a different project. Alas, in the last few weeks there has been a spike in COVID panic driven by people who have “two good eyes but till don't see.”1 So back to COVID it is.
I think the best place to start is with the CDC’s latest mask guidance issued on July 27, 2021, which is a dumpster fire. These new mask guidelines recommend that both vaccinated and unvaccinated people resume wearing masks indoors if they are in areas designated as having "high" or "substantial" Covid-19 transmission rates.2
As the map shows the CDC is now recommending that all people in 2,377 (73.8%) of the 3,219 U.S counties wear masks indoors.3 This is an abrupt reversal from the guidance they issued on May 13, 2021 that fully vaccinated people no longer needed to wear masks and could, with few exceptions, go back to pre-pandemic activities.4
There are several troubling aspects about this new guidance.
On July 8, 2021 - just 19 days before the new CDC guidance, Dr. Fauci was interviewed on NPR’s “All Things Considered.” During that interview he was asked:
“Do the vaccines still work against this new [Delta] variant?” Dr. Fauci replied “The answer is yes, it does.”5 Wow, mark your calendars, a truthful statement from Dr. Fauci. The data, studies, and experts all agree that the existing vaccines are effective against the Delta variant. However, it is uncertain how long the vaccines remain effective against different COVID variants.
What new data came to light since the CDC lifted it’s mask mandate on May 13 and Dr. Fauci confidently, and correctly, stated that the vaccines work against the Delta variant on July 8? First, CDC data shows there is an increase in daily new COVID cases, but daily deaths have remained relatively steady.
The increase in daily new cases is a worrisome, and deaths are a lagging indicator, so it is reasonable to expect that deaths from COVID will increase in the next several weeks. However, these charts include all new daily cases and deaths for both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.6 They do not shed any light on whether vaccinated people are vulnerable, which would be the only logical reason to impose mask mandates on them.
The CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) for July 26, 2021, reports that “over 163 million” people had been fully vaccinated. Of those 163 million people, 6,239 (.00404%) suffered a breakthrough case requiring hospitalization and 1,263 (.00077%) died.7 However, being the beacon of clarity that the CDC is, they report in a footnote that 1,598 of the hospitalizations and 309 of the deaths reported as “Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC” really weren’t! Instead, they are cases that were “asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19,” that were included in the totals for breakthrough cases and deaths. I could not find an explanation for this, like I said….a beacon of clarity.8
Reducing the totals by the number of people who were hospitalized or died due to causes unrelated to COVID results in 4,641 or 0.00285% of fully vaccinated people being hospitalized and 954 or 0.00059% dying due to COVID. Putting these numbers into perspective, 0.00501% of the U.S. population was murdered in 2019.9 Which means a person in the U.S. who is fully vaccinated is 1.75 times as likely to be murdered then contracting COVID and almost 8.5 times more likely to be murdered than die of COVID.10 Prefer visuals to numbers? Courtesy of the New York Post:
This data certainty does not justify having vaccinated people wear masks. To the contrary it shows that vaccines are doing what they are supposed to do - keep people from getting extremely sick and dying. So what did the CDC rely on to issue new guidelines? That question still has not been satisfactorily answered, but the reasons given so far are stupid squared.
In the new masking guidance memo, the CDC seemed to be relying on a study submitted to an academic journal that had not been peer reviewed, has not been published, and looks at the effectiveness of a vaccine being used in India that is “not authorized for use in the United States.” The only other information the CDC references is internal data they had not yet released.11 I am beginning to think the CDC sounds a whole lot like it’s lead by Dean Wormer with his double secret probation gig.12
After taking significant heat, the CDC released additional information on July 30 attempting to support its new guidance. The CDC reports that from July 3 -17 there were “multiple large public events in a Barnstable County, Massachusetts, town” that resulted in 469 COVID-19 cases, 346 (74%) of which “occurred in fully vaccinated persons.” Halfway through the memo you learn that there were only 5 hospitalizations and no deaths. Since the memo was released there have been two additional hospitalizations and still zero deaths.13
In the true spirit of transparency, the CDC left out some pretty important stuff. Like from July 10-18 Provincetown, MA (which, no thanks to the CDC, has been identified as the town in Barnstable County where this outbreak occurred) hosted an annual Bear Weak,14 which is sort of like spring break for gay adults. From the Provincetown website “tens of thousands come to Provincetown during this annual event to go to parties, bars, and clubs throughout the town.”15
I cannot find definitive figures for the number of people who attended Bear Weak, and the CDC didn’t include then. However, I have found estimates ranging from '“tens of thousands” to over 40,000. So I think we can safely say there were a lot of people in town that weak, and most likely between 20,000 and 40,000.16
Peter Staley, an AIDS and gay rights activist provided additional important information the CDC failed to. First, Bear Weak is typically filled with packed bars, parties, etc. Second, he points out that people are “missing the horny bear in the room. Bears go to Ptown to have lots of fun which includes lots of sex. News flash, gay men KISS when they have sex.” Finally, he points out “If you asked an ID [infectious disease] expert to suggest the most efficient way for an infected vaxd person to infect another vaxd person, she'd say ‘let them deeply kiss for half a minute.’”17
To recap, there was a large number of people, most likely 20,000 to 40,000, in a small town, crowding into bars, going to parties, and horror of horrors -kissing - for a weak and a total of 469 people came down with COVID, 346 of whom were fully vaccinated. Of those only 7 had to be hospitalized and no one died. I honestly do not see the threat. To the contrary, given that this event was a big party that lasted for a weak, I think you have to conclude that the vaccines worked extremely well.
After it was pointed out that the Provincetown data did not support mask mandates, the emphasis shifted back to we have a “pandemic among the unvaccinated,” therefore, vaccinated people must wear masks indoors to protect those who are not vaccinated. The assertion that those who decided to get vaccinated now must curtail their lives and liberties to protect those that decided not to get vaccinated is absurd.
Of course, it is no more absurd to mandate that vaccinated people wear masks to protect those who choose not to get vaccinated, then it is to mandate vaccinated people wear masks based on a study of a vaccine not used in the U.S.; or based on an outbreak among 20,000 to 40,000 adults who partied for a week in Provincetown resulting in 7 COVID related hospitalizations and zero deaths.
COVID vaccinations are readily available to any adult who wants one and any child 12 and older whose parents want them to receive one.18 Further, everyone agrees, and the data supports, that the vaccines are effective in protecting those who take them. Even in the rare breakthrough cases, the overwhelming majority of people are asymptomatic or suffer mild symptoms, hospitalizations are rarer, and deaths even more so. Since vaccines are effective and readily available for all adults and children over twelve, no one can expect, and the government cannot demand, that those who are vaccinated curtail their lives and liberties to protect the unvaccinated from a decision they made.
The confusing statements, lack of transparency, and hypocrisy of the last 18 months, not to mention our government officials, news media, big tech, and experts being so wrong, so many times is eroding what little trust and confidence the American public have left in them. A recent Gallup Poll shows that the percent of Americans who have a “great deal” or “quiet a lot” of confidence in: Congress - 12%; Television News - 16%; News Papers - 21%; Large Tech Companies - 29%; The Presidency - 38%; and the Medical System - 44%.19 Given these numbers, the surprising thing is not that there are so many unvaccinated Americans, but that there are so many who are vaccinated.
Finally, I believe getting vaccinated is the prudent thing to do, unless you cannot for medical or religious reasons, or you’ve already had COVID. However, the data and science, not to mention civil liberties, does not support mandating vaccinated people wear masks. Of equal import, I cannot think of a worse message to send to the vaccine hesitant then - “get vaccinated so you too can continue not having a normal life.”
As always comments are welcome.
Lyrics from the Grateful Dead song “Casey Jones,” written by Jerry Garcia and Robert Hunter.
CNN, July 27, 2021, see: https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/27/politics/cdc-mask-guidance/index.html
CDC COVID-Data Tracker, see: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#county-view
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-great-day-for-america-biden-says-touting-cdc-s-eased-mask-guidance/ar-BB1gHJzr
NPR, July 8, 2021, see: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/08/1014214448/fauci-says-current-vaccines-will-stand-up-to-the-delta-variant
CDC COVID-Data Tracker, see: supra note 4.
The CDC stopped tracking all COVID breakthrough cases in April 2021 and now only tracks breakthrough cases that result in hospitalization and death. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
The CDC defines a breakthrough case as the “detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA or antigen in a respiratory specimen collected from a person ≥14 days after receipt of all recommended doses of an FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccine.” https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm
FBI Crime statistics converted to a percent of the estimated population of 328.2 million. See FBI Crime in the U.S., table 7: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019.
I know this is not the perfect analogy, but I believe it is a fare one.
CDC, COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination, footnote 96: with vaccines not authorized for use in the United States.
For those not born in the last century, Dean Wormer is the evil dean in National Lampoon’s movie “Animal House:” https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077975/
CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_w
As I understand the term “Bear” it is slang for a large masculine gay man.
Provincetown website: https://ptowntourism.com/events/bear-week/
Id.
Twitter, Peter Staley: https://twitter.com/peterstaley?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1421215604481142785%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Fgregp-3534%2F2021%2F07%2F30%2Fa-gay-rights-activist-explains-why-the-cdcs-provincetown-study-may-be-fatally-flawed%2F
CDC, see: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019 ncov/vaccines/recommendations/adolescents.html
Gallup News Service, Poll taken June 1 through July 5, 2021: file:///C:/Users/h2av8/Downloads/210714Confidence.pdf