To Trump Or Not To Trump?
"We do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate." (Thomas Jefferson)
The cautious part of me says ‘don’t write this, it’ll upset a lot of people, which is not a good thing when trying to expand your readership.’ The ‘rebel without a clue’ part of me says - ‘just write the damn thing and screw it.’ Alas, it’s too late in life for me to try something new, so I’m going with what the clueless part of me recommends.
I think Trump should enjoy Florida, play some golf, do a little surfing, and sit this one out.
I can’t remember who said it, but I found this the most accurate and pithy summation of Trump’s time as president “he has the best policies and worst personality of any president in the last century and a half.” I would add that his inability to use precise language and personal attacks on those he disagrees with caused problems getting things done in his first term. Unfortunately, I’ve seen no evidence that he’s changed directions. To the contrary, if anything he’s become more divisive and increased his use of personal attacks, which will likely increase the chaos and decrease the effectiveness of his second administration (if he has one) compared to his first.
More importantly, I question whether he can get elected. Both Republicans and Democrats like to think they, and they alone determine elections. They don’t. They determine who wins their respective primary. Independents determine who gets elected to office.
According to Gallop, as of October 2022, the political affiliation of voters in the U.S. is: Democrats - 29%; Republicans - 33%; and Independents - 35%. As can be seen, neither party can win a Presidential election, or really any election, without the Independent vote. Even assuming “leaners” - those independents who lean towards one of the parties - vote for the party they “lean” towards, fails to get either party to the magical 50% figure. Instead, Democrats come in at 42%, and Republicans at 48%. That means the block that will decide the election are those Independents that make up the remaining 10% of the electorate. In short, to win a Presidential election you must win the Independents.1
I can’t speak for all Independents, but I can speak for myself and those I’ve talked to - all of us find a Trump candidacy less than optimal at best, and often unacceptable. Even if Independents wont vote for whoever the Democrat nominee eventually is, many won’t vote for Trump either, they’ll just abstain…which would be almost as bad as if they voted for the Democrat.
Another indication of Trump’s lack of appeal is how candidates he endorsed did in competitive midterm races.2 A review of BallotPedia and Real Clear Politics (RCP) shows that Trump endorsed 21 candidates in races RCP rated as a toss up. The results:
6 for the House of Representatives - five lost and one won.
6 for the Senate - one won, four lost, and one is in a runoff election.
9 for governor races, two won and seven lost.
Trump’s combined record is 16 loses and 4 wins with the Georgia Senate race to be decided in a runoff on December 6.3 A 20% win rate in races RCP rated as toss-ups is poor.
Trump did a bit better in races BallotPedia rated as “battleground races” - races The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, or Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated as toss-ups or lean/tilt Democratic or Republican. In these races candidates Trump endorsed won 14 of 35 elections, for a 38% win rate. Still not good, in fact, still poor.
Whether you use RCP’s “toss-Up” rating or BallotPedia’s “Battle Ground,” the result is pretty much the same - Trump’s voter appeal may be a mile wide, but it’s only an inch deep.
Unless something changes, I just don’t see Independents breaking for Trump. If I’m correct, then Trump can’t win. If I’m wrong and Trump does win, his divisive personality will result in four years of chaos and the alienation of those he needs to push his policies through Congress.
What I find perplexing, is why so many Republicans are dead set on nominating Trump. Especially since there are so many proven Republicans with the same policy goals, but without the divisive personality and the speak first - think later mentality. Governor DeSantis (FL) is obviously one. Governor Kristi Noem (SD), Sen. Cruz (TX), Governor Youngkin (VA), and Nikki Haley (SC) are all worth considering. All of these people are committed to advancing the same policies Trump is, and most of them have a track record of not only implementing those policies, but doing so more efficiently than Trump. An additional benefit is that all of these people, with the possible exception of Sen. Cruz, have much greater appeal among the independents than Trump.
As President Obama said: “Elections have consequences.” I urge everyone to set aside emotion when deciding who you’re going to support in the 2024 primaries.
If you think I’m wrong, then change my mind, as always the comments are open. However, right now I just don’t see the upside to a Trump candidacy.
Notes:
There are only 31 states that require party affiliation when a person registers and to the best of my knowledge, Gallop does not poll party affiliation by state. Therefore, given the electoral college it is not possible for me to categorically state that a party cannot under any circumstances win a Presidential election without the Independent vote. Theoretically if all, or the vast majority of Independents lived in a couple of states with few electoral votes, then the parties would control their own destiny. However, the odds of this being the case are extremely low…about the same as the odds of my alma mater - Notre Dame - winning the 2022-2023 NCAA National Football Championship.
Trump endorsed 257 candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, 241 of those were called at the time of publishing this article. Of the 241 races, Trump endorsed candidates won 213. However, most of these were in safe seats.