Six Short Takes In 2023 On the 2024 Election

“In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.” (Napoleon Bonaparte)

Well here it is only June 2023 and things are already getting interesting for the 2024 elections. What kind of interesting you ask? Well there’s the serious interesting, and the let’s have sketchy people run for office interesting. I initially wrote and posted this at Jester Politics (a good source of information) as Five Short Takes. After the Trump Indictment, I decided to make it an ongoing series and publish updated versions as needed. I’ll post these both here and at Jester Politics.

Serious Interesting.

Trump. Not going into details of why Trump’s Indictment is a train wreck for the country, which it is. I wrote about that at Jester Politics. I just want to point out the Trump Indictment may be counter-productive for the Democrats.

First, I think indicting Trump, while not indicting Biden, H. Clinton, Pence, and Comey - all of whom violated the same law Trump is charged with violating - is going to push those on the fence into voting for Trump…in both the primaries and general election. Conversely, it won’t have any affect on his base.

A recent ABC/Ipsos poll taken after Trump was indicted shows 48% of Americans think Trump’s indictment was right, 35% don’t think he should have been indicted, and 17% are unsure. Most who think the indictment was the right move are Democrats (86%), most who think it was the wrong move are Republicans (67%). That split along party lines is not surprising, and in the overall scheme of things, won’t impact the race. What is surprising, and could have a huge impact on the race is that only 45% of Independents support the indictment.

I’ve pointed out in the past that no one can a win a presidential election without carrying the Independents. I haven’t found the tabs to the poll, but if 45% of Independents support the indictment, then 55% think it’s wrong or are unsure. That doesn’t mean 55% of Independents will vote for Trump because of the indictment. However, assuming Trump wins the Republican primaries, it gives them a reason to vote against Biden. It’s ungood to give people any reason to vote against a President whose approval rating is under water. Real Clear Politics has Biden’s approval rating at a net -12.8%…not quiet submarine underwater, but definitely deep sea diver underwater

Whether the indictment will drive voters to Trump depends on how Trump handles himself. If he’s going to turn what many think is a negative into a positive he’ll have to set his ego aside and tame his mouth…two things he’s had problems doing in the past.

So the money question is - can an old dog learn new tricks?

Sen. Sinema (I-AZ). In 2018 she won the Arizona senate race as a Democrat, became an Independent four years later, and developed into a thorn in the side of both parties. If she stands for reelection, then we’ll have a viable three-way race.

Rep. Ruben Gallego, (D-AZ3) has already declared, and though Kari Lake - who lost a tight governor race - has not yet announced, she is expected to do so. Sen. Sinema also has not yet declared, but she’s raising campaign cash and the Wall Street Journal reports it obtained information that she’s going to run.

The question is not whether Sinema has cross-party appeal, she does. The question is does she have enough cross-party appeal to win as an independent, and if not which party does she hurt more?

With the Senate split 51 Democrats to 49 Republicans the Democrats would like to see Sinema sit this race out. Unfortunately for the Democrats, I doubt she cares what they would like.

Alas, I didn’t finish writing this when AZ Family News (AZ News) reported that the liberal PAC “Change for Arizona” filed a 27 page FEC Complaint against Sen. Sinema. The complaint alleges that since 2019 the good senator spent over $180,000 of campaign funds to finance a rather lavish lifestyle, including trips to Europe, luxury hotels and spas, expensive restaurants, car services, private flights, etc…often during times when she was not campaigning. Senator Sinema denies she did anything wrong, but at last one independent lawyer who is described as a government ethics “expert” disagrees. AZ News quotes attorney Tom Ryan:

When I read this FEC complaint, I was shocked – and I’ve seen a lot of political corruption in my life. You don’t get to mislead donors. You don’t get to take money that’s intended for a public use and turn it into a private benefit, and she has clearly done that in spades.

Stay tuned, depending on whether Sen. Sinema decides to run for reelection and what action the FEC takes, we may have to move her to the “Let’s have Sketchy People Run For Office” interesting category.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Seems that the Senator from Massachusetts, who erroneously claimed she was of Native American ancestry, is in a bit of political trouble. A recent poll conducted by The Fiscal Alliance Foundation shows Warren trails a hypothetical matchup with former Republican Governor Charlie Baker - 49% to 34%.

I don’t put much stock in polls taken over a year before an election, but for an incumbent to have a 15% deficit in any poll at any time is significant.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he was running for president on April 19, 2023 as a Democrat. Most people view Kennedy’s chances of mounting a serious challenge to Biden as slightly less than zero. We may have to rethink this zero sum game.

Though three early polls show Kennedy is trailing significantly, they also show he is more than a nuisance. Rasmussen and Fox News show Kennedy at 19% and Biden at 62%. Emerson has Kennedy at 21% and Biden at 70%.

These are significant numbers for three reasons. First, a sitting president usually does not draw a primary challenger, and if they do, the challenger can be ignored because he or she doesn’t poll higher than single digits.

Second, Rasmussen notes that Democrats admire Kennedy but are backing Biden. Rasmussen is one of the better pollsters and I’m sure he’s right…as it stands today. However, with the pain voters are feeling now, they could easily change their backing to align with their admiring over the next 12 months. Can Kennedy take the Democrat party nomination from Biden? I doubt it, at least as it stands today, but Kennedy does have some traction.

The third reason is the wild card. I believe there’s a pretty good chance RFK Jr. will run as an independent if he can’t get the Democrat nomination. Agree or disagree with him, RFK Jr seems to have more than a bit of cross party appeal. ABC observed that:

Kennedy, a self-described “lifelong Democrat" through his support of what critics call conspiracies about the COVID-19 vaccines, has garnered support from some unlikely bedfellows on the right.

Add to that Steve Bannon’s observation that "RFK Jr. could jump into the Republican primary for president, and only DeSantis and Trump, I think, would do better." If Bannon and ABC are correct, there may be enough to convince RFK Jr to run as an independent if he loses in the primary.

I have two words for those of you who think I’m slipping off into conspiracy theory territory - Ross Perot.

Perot entered the 1992 presidential race against Bush and Clinton and was leading both in June and July. However, he unexpectedly pulled out of the race, then unexpectedly reentered the race. That move coupled with a few other major mistakes sank him, and he ended up with 19% of the popular vote.

Perot’s popularity rested on many of the same factors we see today. A bad economy, frustration with both parties, and many seeing the country heading in the wrong direction. Oh, there was one other major factor - a majority of the voters did not like either candidate. Sound familiar?

Yes, I know Trump has a strong base and the polls show he’s running away with the Republican primary, at least for now. Biden on the other hand has the strong support of the Democrat Party and is running away with the Democrat primary, at least for now. But as I wrote before, no candidate can win the presidency by riding his base alone - they need the center of their party - and most importantly, they need the independents. According to Gallup independents make up 41% of the voters while the Republicans come in at 30% and the Democrats at 27%.¹

Trump has a net 9.7% unfavorable rating among voters while Biden has a net 10.4% unfavorable rating. A viable third candidate could pull in a significant number of independents resulting in some major surprises, like sending the election to the House of Representatives for the first time since 1824.²

Let’s Have Sketchy People Run For Office Interesting

Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ). At the end of his current term the Senator from New Jersey will have served 32 years as an elected federal official - the first 13 in the House of Representatives and the last 19 in the Senate. He set some enviable records during his 32 years “serving” the people. First, he’s tied with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) as the 11th longest serving federal official. Of greater note he was tried on corruption charges in 2017, which he beat not because the jury found him innocent, but because the jury couldn’t reach a verdict and the government declined to take him to trial again. Even more impressive, in an apparent attempt to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Menendez is again under investigation for, you guessed it, corruption.

Menendez is being investigated by both the Department of Justice and the Senate ethics committee. This time indications are the allegations center around his wife, who is described as an ‘international business woman’ he met at IHOP. Seems the feds are looking into whether his wife received money and “gifts” from IS EG Halal in return for favors from her husband.

Of course, an investigation doesn’t mean Menendez is guilty. What it does mean is he’s egotistical, stupid, or both. Anyone with two functioning brain cells that weren’t passed out drunk would hold to a very straight line after walking away from one corruption trial because of a hung jury…and yet here he is again.

One last point - who wouldathunk that IHOP is a hangout for international business women and U.S. Senators.

Rep. Santos (R-NY3). The saddest thing about Santos being in Congress is that there’s a village somewhere without an idiot. A charitable take is that Santos makes John Lovitz’s SNL character “The Liar” look honest. To list all of his lies exceeds the scope of this article, but Vanity Fair has a list of them if you’re interested. However, a couple that strike me as just unbelievable are:

1. He claimed he earned a degree in economics and finance from Baruch College while not only playing volleyball for their team, but being the star of the team. He did neither. In fact he did not attend Baruch College and never earned a degree - from any college.

2. He told the story of how his grandparents escaped the Holocaust. They didn’t, seems they were born in Brazil and are not Jewish. He has no shame.

On the upside, the only running Santos will hopefully be doing is running from the law. He’s just been charged with 13 felonies.

What do you all think - Can Sinema win as an independent in a three way race? Will Warren keep her seat if Baker runs against her? Is RFK Jr. a new Perot on steroids? Am I wrong about Menendez - do you think the latest investigation makes him vulnerable? Finally, is there anyone who would defend Santos?

1. Full disclosure, I’m an independent.

2. If no candidate receives a majority of the electoral vote, the House of Representatives selects the President from those candidates who received the most electoral votes. A maximum of three candidates may be considered. In such a vote, each state receives one vote, so the individual state delegations must decide who to cast their state’s vote for. 12th Amendment to the Constitution.